Draft Day is finally here! As a fan of football, both NFL and NCAA, I love draft season. Every day we are fed with new rumors and speculation. As a sports genius, I have a solid idea of how this is going to play out. I present to you my 2024 NFL Draft predictions.

First things first. I’m not Johnny Hot Takes, I’m more Johnny Common Sense. My predictions won’t be mind-blowing or over the top. My predictions will be based on team history and current team needs.

Prediction #1

Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are drafted #1 & #2, but neither live up to the hype.

Caleb Williams as the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is not a prediction, it’s a given. There is some speculation whether the #2 pick will be Jayden Daniels out of LSU or Drake Maye from UNC. I believe the Washington Commanders will draft Jayden Daniels with the second pick.

Caleb Williams is being touted as a generational talent. However, it takes much, much more than talent to have a successful NFL career. There are a lot of questions regarding the mental makeup of Caleb Williams, which is entirely fair. He cried on national TV after USC lost to Washington. That is a bad look for him, and it’s the main reason that even if the New York Giants had the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, I would not want them to draft Caleb Williams. 

Making the situation worse for Caleb Williams is that he is being drafted by the Chicago Bears, a team with a horrifically bad track record at developing QBs. If there is any hope for Caleb Williams, he needs to be drafted into the right situation. Right team, right city. The Bears, historically, have never been that team. 

I do think Caleb Williams can have a good rookie season, but I doubt he develops into an elite QB.

Jayden Daniels isn’t going to live up to the hype either. In a very similar situation, Jayden Daniels is being drafted to a team that has not developed a QB in my lifetime. Not only does the former Washington Football Team struggle to develop QBs, they actively destroy the careers of any QB they come in contact with. The Commanders are the Death Penalty to young QBs. 

There is a glimmer of hope though. New ownership can potentially bring change. The entire culture around the Commanders needs to be changed, and maybe the new ownership group will bring about that change. But results won’t be immediate, which dooms the career of Jayden Daniels.

Prediction #2

The Patriots trade out of the #3 slot 

The Patriots have bottomed out. This is a bad team with a lot of holes. A lot, and I mean A LOT of needs. Fans everywhere are rejoicing. 

Which is why it does not make sense for the Patriots to draft a QB. In order to truly develop a QB, a system needs to be in place. A young QB needs support. Just ask David Carr. The Patriots completely lack the depth to support a young QB. Mac Jones didn’t look great, but he sure didn’t have any help either.

The Patriots are a smart organization. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady may have left the building, but the winning culture isn’t going to vanish the moment they are gone. This is a team that understands the importance of depth and the importance of a system. The Patriots aren’t going to draft a QB with the 3rd pick.

It makes sense for the Patriots to trade out of the #3 spot, accumulate picks, fill needs, and focus on next year’s QB class. The Patriots aren’t going to the playoffs next year, and they will likely be picking at the top of the draft again next year.

The Patriots will trade out of the #3 spot to the New York Giants, who then draft Drake Maye.

Drake Maye just looks like a Brian Daboll guy. A raw talent who needs refining, much like Josh Allen. The Giants and the Vikings will both be in play for this pick. The Vikings have more capital, but the Giants have the better draft spot to barter with at #6.

Prediction #3 

Arizona does not trade out of the #4 spot

Arizona has stated that they are open to discussion for trading the 4th pick, but I think they are going to draft Marvin Harrison Jr there. Arizona has invested in Kyler Murray, and they could really use a receiver with Harrison’s skill and pedigree to hedge against the Murray contract turning into a bust. 

Arizona is a team that saw their best years come on the back of Larry Fitzgerald. It would make sense for them to use that formula to recreate their past success.

Prediction #4

The Chargers opt to protect Justin Herbert rather than get him a weapon

This reminds me of the 2021 draft when the Bengals had the option of either drafting Penei Sewell to protect Joe Burrow or taking his former roommate from LSU, Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals opted for the weapon, which they parlayed into a Super Bowl appearance.

The Chargers have Malik Nabers ont he board, but they will opt for Joe Alt instead, which is the right move. Justin Herbert is a stud QB who needs protection. Wide Receivers are attainable pieces, and there will be multiple skilled Wide Receivers in every draft. Disgruntled Wide Receivers looking to get paid are also available nearly every offseason. 

The Chargers also have Quentin Johnston on their roster, their first round pick out of TCU in last year’s draft. Johnston had a disastrous rookie year, but he will have the opportunity to redeem himself now with Joe Alt protecting Justin Herbert.

Prediction #5

Patriots trade their 6th pick (from the Giants) to the Minnesota Vikings

The Patriots trade down again, gaining more draft capital in not only this year’s, but also next year’s draft. Minnesota is now desperate for a QB, already missing out on Drake Maye earlier in the draft. Minnesota has arguably the best WR in the NFL, Justin Jefferson, but no one to throw him the ball. Minnesota will desperately trade with the Patriots and draft JJ McCarthy.

Prediction #6

Aaron Rodgers has the final say on the Jets 2024 draft pick

The Jets need help in two areas for Aaron Rodgers, offensive line and pass catcher. I don’t know which he opts for, and Aaron Rodgers isn’t the easiest guy to predict. But I do know the Jets need to run their selection past him before they make their pick.

Prediction #6A

Aaron Rodgers does ayahuasca to gain clarity into his draft pick

Prediction #6B

Aaron Rodgers makes the wrong pick

Athletes do not make good general managers. We’ve seen this fail before. The Jets give Aaron Rodgers too much power, and he bungles the pick. He probably should not have done that ayahuasca.

Prediction #7

The Patriots, now with the 11th pick, trade down one last time. The Las Vegas Raiders trade up from #13 to #11, leapfrogging the Denver Broncos, who also need a QB. The Raiders draft Michael Penix Jr.

The Raiders are looking for a QB, and they only need to jump over a division rival to get him. The Raiders get a short-term steal in Michael Penix. Penix is the most NFL-ready QB in this draft class, due to him being older than the rest of these guys. He is more mature than the rest of the QBs in this draft, and he achieves success in the pros the quickest. He fits into Antonio Pierce’s locker room and excels in the short term. Penix has dealt with his share of injuries, and he seems to lack long-term potential. However, the Raiders make the playoffs in 2024 with Penix as their starter.

Prediction #8

This draft haunts the Jets for the next 5 – 10 years

The Patriots win the draft, amassing draft capital for years. The Patriots have the ability to fill multiple needs with the players they want, and manage to reshape their roster. Do we see six Super Bowls in 20 years again? I hope not. Do we see a team regularly over .500 battling for the AFC East year-in and year-out. I think so.

The Jets, as I predicted, rue this draft and curse Aaron Rodgers and Joe Douglas for blowing this pick. It’s just the way it always seems to play out for the Jets.

By JMo

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