If you charted the past two decades of Boston Red Sox success on a line graph, you’d see more zigs and zags than an entire season of Law & Order: SVU. This 20-year period began with the absolute highest of highs for Boston sports fans, a miraculous 2004 title run delivered by arguably the greatest Red Sox team ever assembled. 20 years later, Craig Breslow is attempting to finally steer the old town team back into some semblance of the perpetually forward course Theo Epstein maneuvered them into all those years ago. Unfortunately, there are very few similarities when you compare the 2004 vs 2024 Red Sox rosters.
Ever since the Curse of the Bambino was broken, this franchise set a pattern of winning championships with historically good teams before following those seasons up with multiple years of embarrassing irrelevance. In their attempt to mirror the long, successful builds orchestrated by the Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Baltimore Orioles, Fenway Sports Group has eschewed the reload-over-rebuild philosophy Red Sox fans had grown to love. The gradual build-from-within formula has been proven successful elsewhere, but that’s of little consolation to fans who look back with such reverence at the team from 20 years ago.
So today we’re going to take a fun trip down the emerald aisle of memory lane while also taking a squeamish look at the cloudy road to tomorrow. Let’s compare the roster that made a region rejoice in 2004 to the team that makes the same region regurgitate today.
Starting Pitching
Some legendary horses had some incredible outings for the Red Sox in 2004, and that’s clearly the elephant in the room when comparing these two squads. Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling is the best 1-2 combo in team history, Derek Lowe had won 38 games over the two years leading up to 2004, Tim Wakefield could still throw nine innings every single day if needed, and Bronson Arroyo was a respectable up-and-comer with a nasty slider.
There’s nobody in the 2024 Red Sox starting rotation with a history that’s in any way comparable to 2004 Pedro or Schilling … or Lowe … or even Wake. Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck each have at least one plus pitch, and they all have the potential to become very good MLB starters. However, all five of them are far closer on the food chain to Bronson Arroyo’s 2004 level than any of the other starters from that iconic team. Arroyo was a very good number five option in those days, which shows you just how far apart the rotations are on these two teams. Any hopes that fans of the 2024 Red Sox have are pinned entirely on the alleged wizardry of the Craig Breslow-Andrew Bailey-Justin Willard pitching lab.
Bullpen
The 2004 Red Sox bullpen was as solid as a relief core could be back in the steroid era. Keith Foulke was at his peak, saving 32 games with a 2.17 ERA. Mike Timlin and Alan Embree were a workhorse lefty-righty duo whose production literally mirrored each other in 2004 (identical 4.13 ERAs in 147 combined appearances). Scott Williamson dominated in the 2003 playoffs and picked up right where he left off when the 2004 season got underway. And Ramiro Mendoza had successfully notched a ton of high-leverage innings in New York during his long tenure setting up Mariano Rivera.
The bullpen is one area where the 2024 Red Sox could possibly hold a candle to the 2004 team, but that all depends on the durability of a 36-year-old, 270-pound closer who has been very vocal about his frustration with the direction of the team. Chris Martin may be the best non-closing relief pitcher in baseball since mid-2022. Josh Winckowski has one year of solid workhorseplay under his belt (60 appearances last year with a 2.88 ERA), but lacks big-game experience. Isaiah Campbell and Greg Weissert look outstanding thus far, each sporting breaking pitches that move like Yondu’s baton thingy, and Justin Slaten comes with a lot of high praise. But as good as the middle relievers and setup crew looked in the first series of 2024, Kenley Jansen’s back issues could singlehandedly torpedo this crew’s potential. Combine that with the lack of a decent lefthanded option (at least until Breslow comes to his senses and calls up Brennan Bernardino from Worcester), and this bullpen feels kinda like a submarine with screen doors at the forward and aft ends.
Offense
I mean … come on. Do I really need to say anything here?
Okay, fine.
The thought of having Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz in the heart of your lineup was downright orgasmic in 2004. A homegrown regional legend, an idiot savant of hitting, and the emerging GOAT DH anchored one of the scariest lineups ever assembled. This offense was so good that Johnny Damon, one of the three best leadoff hitters alive at that point, was a freaking afterthought. Throw in Boston darlings Jason Varitek and Trot Nixon along with savvy veterans Mark Bellhorn and Bill Mueller (who won a batting title hitting ninth, ho hum), and you have the Murderer’s Row of the 2000s.
The 2024 Red Sox offense could be very good, with Rafael Devers and Triston Casas poised to lead the way and put a whoopin’ on MLB pitching this season. On the other hand it could be pretty blah, with questions surrounding Masataka Yoshida’s ability to hit for a full year, Trevor Story’s ability to hit at all, and Tyler O’Neill’s ability to put the barbells down long enough to study some film. If you think those guys are question marks, consider Vaughn Grissom, Cedanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Enmanuel Valdez, and Jarren Duran. My wife drinks more cups of coffee by 11 am than these guys have experienced at the MLB level combined. They’ve all displayed considerable talent in the minors to this point, but so did Will Middlebrooks, Lars Anderson, Ryan Lavarnway, Blake Swihart, and hundreds of others who are all coaches, analysts, car salesmen, or grocery baggers now. Even if they all hit their ceilings this year, there is a -1,000% chance that the 2024 Red Sox could ever approach the production of the 2004 crew.
Defense
Defensive skullduggery was a common chokepoint for both these teams, and it took a league-rattling trade to fix the 2004 team’s issues in the field. Moving Nomar in a four-way trade to acquire defensive studs Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz (both personal favorites of mine at the time) initially sent thousands of Sox fans running for the torches and pitchforks. By season’s end, however, this became the singular transaction that cemented Theo Epstein as a Boston sports legend with a golden mind and brass balls. Nomar had a cannon for an arm, but was too prone to flubs and injuries for the Sox to carry his weight (and malaise) to a World Series. Cabrera shined in the field and at the plate down the stretch, and Mientkiewicz became a valuable late-inning replacement who spared us all from a potential Buckner-ish moment at the hands of the defensively hapless Kevin Millar.
The 2024 Red Sox come into the season with a better defense than they’ve had the past couple years, but they’re still far from leakproof. Story has always been an elite shortstop, and Rafaela may win a platinum glove or two before all is said and done. Those two should help seal things up through the middle, and yielding most of Yoshida’s outfield reps to Duran should help at the edges in spite of the loss of Alex Verdugo, who was replaced by the comparable gloves of O’Neill and Abreu. The infield corners are the most concerning spots, with Devers butchering a lot of balls at third last year while Casas did his best impersonation of a statue. They both need to progress significantly, while Connor Wong needs to evolve from a sniper of base stealers to a solid all-around backstop.
Tale of the Tape
The 2024 Red Sox have completely different players, philosophies, executives, and expectations than the 2004 Red Sox. The big-market bullies of yesteryear have been replaced with a patient, homegrown operation that refuses to invest in star power unless the team first proves themselves on the field to be true competitors.
The 2004 roster was a perfect representation of what a winning team looked like in the mid-2000s. Based on what we’ve seen in Major League Baseball over the past decade, the 2024 Red Sox seem like a good representation of what a team looks like a year or two before they are ready to become winners in this day and age. Perhaps 20 years from now, we’ll look back on the patience and fiscal responsibility Fenway Sports Group exhibits today as being just as effective at building a sustained contender as the cash-and-slash method of the Epstein-Cherington-Dombrowski years.
Regardless, the 2004 team’s identity was unmistakable. They were a beast who instilled a legitimate swagger into our entire fanbase. We still have no idea what the 2024 Red Sox are, and we likely won’t know for at least a year. Games are not won on paper, but I think we can all agree that it was a hell of a lot more fun rooting for a paper juggernaut.
RIP Larry Lucchino
I can’t wrap up today without mentioning the passing of Larry Lucchino, one of the chief architects of the golden era of Red Sox baseball. He came aboard as President and CEO of the Boston Red Sox from 2002 – 2015, where he presided over the most successful (both baseball and business-wise) 13-year period the franchise has ever seen. He remained with the organization as the chairman/co-owner of the Pawtucket Red Sox after stepping down from the big league team, and he was instrumental in the minor league team’s move to Worcester in 2021.
Lucchino was renowned league-wide as a brilliant businessman and key figure in the evolution of big-market baseball. He also helped pioneer the development of everybody’s favorite baseball stadiums … you know, the ones with old-school charm and reduced seating capacities that took the league by storm starting in the early 90s. Both Oriole Park at Camden Yards and Petco Park broke ground during his respective tenures with the Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres.
While reports surfaced throughout the years about his bristly and shark-like personality regarding business matters, you could probably say the same thing about most successful executives in just about any industry. I personally placed a lot of blame on Lucchino when the team was unable to extend Jon Lester before free agency and ultimately traded him in mid-2014. However, recent history implies that Larry probably wasn’t the only high-ranking Red Sox official who was averse to paying hefty extensions to team cornerstones.
Regardless of any personal issues that may have lingered between Lucchino and Lester, Terry Francona, Theo Epstein, or anybody else, not even Lucchino’s biggest detractors would ever knock his ability to pilot a baseball franchise and make smart business deals. A lot of knowledgeable sources will tell you that the 2004, 2007, and 2013 Red Sox teams would have never sniffed the Promised Land without Lucchino at the helm, and his memory is sure to be held in high regard by this organization forever and ever.
Larry Lucchino
(September 6, 1945 – April 2, 2024)
