Red Sox Stat Leader Predictions: Offense

Expectations is a funny word to use regarding the 2024 Boston Red Sox.

There is a lot of talent in this lineup, and I expect their offense to excel.

However, it’s difficult to break down my expectations on a granular level due to the wide range of potential statistical outcomes on this team. They have a bunch of guys who can play baseball really well, but it’s just as likely (or more likely) that most of those players perform very poorly this season.

There are so few “sure things” on this year’s Red Sox that guessing who will lead the team in virtually any statistical category is like flipping a nine-sided coin. Your guess is as good as mine.

As hopeless as it may be though, I’m going to put my considerable street cred on the line and take a stab at predicting which Red Sox will lead the team in a variety of statistical categories in 2024.

Batting Average – Vaughn Grissom (.290)

I’ve made no secret of how high I am on this guy ever since the Red Sox acquired him in exchange for Chris Sale’s dead body, and the reason for that is his contact hitting. He has a .287 average in his first 216 MLB at-bats, and he hit .320 in 1,263 career minor league at-bats. The Red Sox have barely any players who could realistically threaten to hit .300, and I don’t expect Grissom to reach that mark either. But I do expect him to rip 15 or so homers and about 20 doubles with enough singles mixed in to lead the team in hitting.

OPS – Triston Casas (.875)

Casas and Rafael Devers were neck and neck last season, with Casas barely edging Raffy out by five points with an OPS of .856. I expect a friendly season-long duel between these two over a slew of offensive categories in 2024. Casas will draw 100 walks, and his superior OBP will nudge him just beyond the top-tier slugging percentage of Devers to take the team OPS crown.

Home Runs – Rafael Devers (38)

After a slightly down 2023, Devers will avoid an early season slump and return to All-Star form and tie his career high in homers. Casas will breathe down his neck for much of the season before Raffy pulls away down the stretch, and these two will begin a decade-long tear that Boston has never seen from a pair of lefty sluggers before.

RBI – Rafael Devers (110)

This should come as no surprise, especially with him pushing 40 dongs. A lot of this will depend on the ability of Duran, Grissom, and whoever else hits in the leadoff spot to get on base ahead of him, but there’s no reason to think Devers can’t reach 110 RBI for the third time in his career as long as he stays healthy.

Hits – Vaughn Grissom (170)

I told you I was high on this guy. Lots of singles coming his way this season, and he’ll be leading off against lefthanded starting pitchers before the All-Star break. He’s one of the cornerstone players of this team for at least the next six seasons, and don’t be surprised if the Red Sox start talking extension with him a year from now. Devers will be a close second in this category, but I’m going with the heir apparent of Xander Bogaerts to lead the team in hits.

Runs – Rafael Devers (120)

Between driving himself in with round-trippers and having a resurgent Trevor Story and an evolving Casas hitting behind him, I think Devers has the edge here. His career high in runs scored is 129, and I expect his 2024 totals to be right up there with his all-time best. Good seasons from Wilyer Abreu and/or Tyler O’Neil would help this prediction an awful lot.

Stolen Bases – Jarren Duran (45)

This is clearly a no-brainer as long as health isn’t an issue. I think Alex Cora will unleash Duran this season, and he’ll run often. But after having surgery on his left big toe last August, Duran will hold back a bit to avoid aggravating the injury to show he can stay healthy for a full season. He’ll steal more bags than any Red Sox has sniffed since Jacoby Ellsbury, but he won’t put up the video game-type numbers he’s capable of when 100% healthy.

Doubles – Jarren Duran (53)

If this seems like an unrealistic projection to you, you haven’t seen Jarren Duran get out of the box on a base hit before. Singles to the outfield are a rarity for him simply because it’s really hard for outfielders to ever get the ball to the infield before he makes it to second base. He stretches singles the way Ichiro used to, which is an even deadlier tool than his ability to steal bases. He notched 34 doubles in 332 at-bats last year. Give him 500 at-bats, and 53 shouldn’t be that hard.

Triples – Jarren Duran (5)

Trevor Story will be his only teammate to hit more than two. I’ll also predict two inside-the-park dingers for Duran; one to the triangle at Fenway and one to that stupid triangle in left-center at Camden Yards.

Walks – Triston Casas (105)

This is the part of his game that will elevate Casas beyond the other “dangerous” hitters in the league and elevate him to the doorstep of being an “elite” hitter. With Grissom, Tyler O’Neil, Wilyer Abreu, and the like hitting behind him, I expect over 10 intentional passes coming his way from righthanded pitchers as well.

Strikeouts – Trevor Story (155)

I expect Story to bounce back this year and look a lot more like the guy that raked in Colorado. However, even in his best days, Story was always a whiffer. He’s never struck out less than 139 times in a full season, and this year will be no exception. Luckily, the homers, doubles, and RBI will be there alongside the Ks this season.

Missed Games – Tyler O’Neil (50)

Dude is too jacked to stay healthy. That’s my legitimate opinion on O’Neil, who I would’ve killed to have on the Red Sox back in 2021 when I saw him kick ass with the Cardinals. Guys who are really swole like him, Giancarlo Stanton, and even Duran always pull up lame with muscle pulls that keep them on and off the Injured List year after year. I wish the Red Sox training staff would get him off the weights and into some yoga, plyometrics, or even Tae Bo so he could focus more on flexibility and durability without spending so much time picking things up and putting them down. I see three IL stints coming for O’Neil in 2024. None of them will be long-term, but all of them will screw up any chance of him finding a rhythm at the plate.

Walk-Offs – C.J. Cron (4)

This is the big Red Sox move that nobody is talking about. As I said last week, Cron is a solid fit in the middle of the Red Sox order and, if Alex Cora can find him enough playing time, I think he will be a sneaky huge part of the offense. I think he’s going to hit 20 home runs in limited playing time, and that he will put 100 dents into the left field wall. Chalk him up for two walk-off bombs and two more walk-off singles, doubles, sac flies, or whatever. Much like Adam Duvall when he was healthy in 2023, C.J. is going to come up big for Boston this year.

Outbursts – Pablo Reyes (3)

I think Pablo felt that he earned the spot of everyday second basemen last season, and I think the Red Sox made an enemy of him by acquiring Vaughn Grissom. I like him as a player, and I would’ve been fine letting him start there this year if they didn’t pick up a second baseman elsewhere. But as Cora said last season, “Pablo’s not an everyday player.” Plain and simple. He’s got a lot of attitude and emotion, and I fear that it will get the best of him in a 2024 where he won’t have as many opportunities to play as he expects. I see one dugout argument with a teammate, one benching from Cora, and one incident of mouthing off to the press. Adios, mi amigo.

If you thought the offensive stat leader predictions were a toss up, wait till next week when I make the pitching predictions. I may need to break out the old magic eight ball for that one.